The early months of 2025 have underscored the complexities of geopolitics, demonstrating the careful navigation Turkey must undertake in this challenging landscape.
As Turkey confronts the realities of a transforming global order, economic shifts, and regional tensions, incorporating the insights of diverse, informed leaders—particularly women—becomes vital for effective decision-making.
On March 6, the Atlantic Council Turkey Programs convened a private roundtable to celebrate women’s leadership in Turkey in honor of International Women’s Day. This momentous event gathered women thought leaders, diplomats, and business leaders to engage in dialogue about global and regional circumstances, emphasizing actionable solutions to pressing issues. These influential women shared their experiences navigating a complicating world, particularly discussing Turkey’s relations with the United States and the European Union (EU), its role within NATO and the Middle East, and the trajectory of the Turkish economy.
Navigating US-Turkey Relations in a Transforming International Landscape
Participants noted that the anticipated return of former US President Donald Trump has significantly reshaped the international order. With its strategic geographical position, Turkey occupies a crucial role in this evolving dynamic, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Concerns were voiced about the diminishing status of the United States as a diplomatic authority due to abrupt foreign policy shifts. The women leaders stressed Turkey’s potential to emerge as a robust regional leader, cautioning against hesitation reminiscent of the early Syrian civil war when opportunities to enhance EU ties through its response to the migrant crisis went unfulfilled.
Turkey’s Growing Influence in the Middle East
Speakers discussed Turkey’s evolving position within the Middle East and beyond, highlighting Ankara’s successful efforts to cultivate relationships with Gulf nations in spite of historical disagreements. One participant noted that Turkey has transitioned from direct competition with these states to adopting a more pragmatic approach to diplomacy throughout the region. Discussions also included Turkey’s stance on Israel and regional security, particularly in light of heightened tensions following Hamas’s attacks on October 7, 2023. Additionally, the conversation focused on Turkey’s capacity to influence Syria’s future, with agreement that maintaining influence over the Damascus government without compromising Syria’s sovereignty is a delicate challenge.
EU-Turkey Defense Relations and Their NATO Implications
Participants welcomed signs of a more positive EU-Turkey relationship, motivated by developments in Syria, joint efforts in Ukraine, and recent discussions on defense cooperation. Nevertheless, skepticism lingered regarding the prospects for these bilateral relationships to cultivate broader EU-wide support for Turkey. The dialogue highlighted Turkey’s solid relationships with key European nations, including Spain and Italy, though criticism arose over the inability to leverage these connections for more extensive regional backing. Some attendees expressed concerns about the EU’s hesitation to deepen ties with Turkey, particularly due to past tensions with France and Greece, urging recognition of Turkey as a vital ally based on its military and strategic significance.
One participant emphasized the need to reevaluate NATO’s framework to ensure Turkey’s security concerns are addressed while considering broader international tensions. The roundtable highlighted Turkey’s historical role as a bridge between East and West, a function that is increasingly crucial amid rising global tensions. She underscored Turkey’s engagement with both Western allies and Russia, pointing out the importance of maintaining a balanced foreign policy.
Turkey’s Position in the Evolving Syrian Landscape
In addressing the future of Syrian refugees in Turkey—home to 3.1 million individuals under temporary protection—participants acknowledged the role many Syrians have played in establishing businesses. This theme resonated through a preview screening of an excerpt from the Atlantic Council Turkey Programs’ documentary, Do Seagulls Migrate?, which captures the stories of four Syrian women refugees navigating their new lives.
While recognizing the economic contributions refugees make, speakers highlighted the social tensions in refugee-heavy areas like Kilis and certain neighborhoods in Istanbul, characterized by rising rents and job scarcity. The women leaders underscored the urgent need for comprehensive policies to address the multifaceted challenges posed by rapid demographic changes. Concerns also arose regarding the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, given its previous affiliations with al-Qaeda, and the fears among Syrian refugees—especially women—regarding a return to Syrian territory that remains uncertain and perilous. Discussions also brought to light the increasing presence of a new generation of Syrian children raised in Turkey, emphasizing the need for their future representation within Turkey’s democratic framework.
Economic Factors: Trade, Tariffs, and the Future
Several speakers highlighted the intrinsic connection between Turkey’s economic trajectory and its ties to Europe. Among the foremost worries discussed were the implications of US tariffs and sanctions, which are likely to intensify existing economic pressures. Furthermore, new EU environmental regulations, like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, could create additional challenges for Turkish exports. Nonetheless, a cautious optimism prevailed among participants regarding potential increases in trade between Turkey and the United States, with the trading volume reaching $32 billion in 2024. The consensus urged the importance of maintaining a balanced foreign policy to protect Turkey’s economic stability and encourage sustained growth, advocating for a careful equilibrium between the United States, Europe, and regional partners to navigate emerging economic certainties and harness new trade possibilities.
Investing in Turkey’s Human Capital
Participants acknowledged the robust private sector in Turkey, emphasizing its capacity for innovation. However, a call was made for Turkey to enhance its relevance in a competitively evolving global landscape by developing a skilled workforce. Discussions focused on the critical need to align educational programs with labor market requirements, especially in fields such as digital innovation, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. Emphasizing the importance of university partnerships and vocational training investments, speakers voiced concerns about the adverse effects of brain drain on Turkey’s potential for innovation, with talented youth seeking opportunities abroad. As asserted by one participant, prioritizing the development of a highly skilled workforce is essential for Turkey to remain economically competitive in this changing marketplace.
Highlights from the Roundtable Event
Zeynep Egeli serves as the project assistant for the Atlantic Council Turkey Programs.
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