The Big 12’s Standing in Women’s Basketball: An Analysis

During a recent weekend, my brother-in-law and I engaged in a lively conversation about the renowned “Big Four” in men’s tennis—comprising Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray. He passionately argued that Murray didn’t belong in that elite group, given his three Grand Slam titles compared to the 20+ amassed by the others. Yet, there was a distinct period (around 2010-2016) when these four competitors were discussed in the same breath.

This debate about inclusion mirrors my thoughts on the Big 12 Conference in women’s basketball this season. With recent conference realignments, we now recognize four dominant leagues: the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12. While the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC host multiple teams vying for national titles and are expected to have several squads securing NCAA Tournament hosting slots, the Big 12 seems oddly absent from this conversation.

Aside from Notre Dame’s puzzling performances during a trip to the Cayman Islands against TCU and Utah, the Big 12 has struggled to notch significant victories in nonconference action. Iowa State and Baylor have fallen short of their preseason expectations, although the Bears appear to be on the rise. Furthermore, Utah and Colorado have lost key seniors from the previous season and continue to find their footing. Adding to this, Oklahoma and Texas have transitioned to the SEC, altering the competitive landscape.

The weight of the Big 12’s aspirations rests on Kansas State and TCU, both seasoned teams that have recorded only two losses this season combined. Yet, despite their impressive resumes—the Wildcats rank second nationally in assists and first in opponent field goal percentage, while the Horned Frogs hold the second position in made three-pointers and fifth in blocks—neither team is viewed as a championship contender. Memories of their lopsided defeats to Duke and South Carolina linger too strongly. Unfortunately, until March arrives, the Big 12 schedule offers limited opportunities for these teams to change perceptions.

Can we get a GO CATS?! pic.twitter.com/yK2fvLtVnn

— K-State Women’s Basketball (@KStateWBB) January 19, 2025

Perhaps a pre-existing bias is working against the Big 12, but maybe the Wildcats are poised for a breakthrough, aiming for their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1983. On the other hand, TCU has yet to reach that round in its history, although many of its starters have experienced success at other programs.

Alternatively, it might simply be that the Big 12 is the Andy Murray of power conferences, and we could soon find ourselves discussing the Big Three once again.

Three Teams on the Rise

Texas Needs Offensive Surge from Rori Harmon

Longtime followers understand my reservations about Texas’ potential ceiling. However, if the Longhorns hope to make a Final Four appearance, Rori Harmon must step up as a reliable offensive option alongside Madison Booker. With Laila Phelia battling injuries and Aaliyah Moore experiencing a dip in performance since her junior year, the onus falls on Harmon—despite her recent return from an ACL injury.

Harmon excels defensively, collecting steals at an impressive rate, making her integral to Texas’ defensive success. Her presence on the court enhances Texas’ defensive efficiency, yet her offensive game still requires improvement. The Longhorns need her to provide consistent offensive pressure and mid-range scoring, especially as her three-point shooting hovers at 19 percent.

In another telling statistic, during a loss to South Carolina, Harmon managed a few impressive finishes around the basket but only took four shots after the first quarter. It was reassuring to see her attempt 15 field goals in a subsequent game against Auburn—her highest tally of the season. That performance didn’t come at the expense of her passing; she also recorded a game-high six assists. Notably, she’s making 65 percent of her shots near the basket, a significant improvement from the 54.2 percent she managed during her last complete season.

Texas remains without significant losses, with their sole defeats occurring on the road to South Carolina and Notre Dame. However, they have yet to secure any remarkable victories. This week presents a chance for success against three top-25 defenses: Maryland in the Coretta Scott King Classic, Tennessee at home, and Ole Miss on the road. A standout performance from Harmon in these matchups could shift the narrative around Texas’ potential.

TCU Optimizing Hailey Van Lith’s Potential

Hailey Van Lith’s transfer to TCU made strategic sense given the presence of fellow point guard Donovyn Hunter, who guided Oregon State to the Elite Eight. At LSU, Van Lith struggled with the responsibility of running the offense, a skill set she excelled in during her tenure at Louisville. In the initial 11 games at TCU, she partnered with Hunter or Una Jovanovic, another point guard, but a shift occurred in the lineup that now features three wings alongside her and Sedona Prince.

This adjustment has allowed Van Lith to thrive, averaging 17.5 points and 5.5 assists over the last 10 games while sinking 35.1 percent of her three-pointers. The new lineups cater to her skill set, enabling her to run ball screens effectively surrounded by three shooters. Madison Conner shares some ball-handling responsibilities, but Van Lith has markedly improved her ability to orchestrate the offense.

Her success at the point guard position is crucial for her professional prospects, and her versatility provides the Horned Frogs with dynamic options. While previous coaching staff at LSU struggled to optimize her talent, TCU’s coach Mark Campbell has successfully navigated her skills to maximize her contributions.

Duke’s Dominance at Home

Duke’s women’s basketball team is arguably among the best in the nation—especially within the confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. Their home net rating sits at an impressive plus-45.7 per 100 possessions, bolstered by a solid victory over Stanford recently. This makes them a standout team, often reverting to old standards when playing on their home court.

This past week, Duke welcomed Stanford and California, the latter riding high on their impressive wins over Florida State and NC State before facing a formidable Blue Devils team. California struggled significantly, committing 31 turnovers in 40 minutes. Stanford fared better with its ball control, yet they still faced deficits in productivity, showcasing a defense that stifles opponents.

A stellar defensive performance. pic.twitter.com/BdmE2qwnuC

— Duke Women’s Basketball (@DukeWBB) January 18, 2025

While other teams also perform better at home, Duke’s advantage is vastly pronounced. They exhibit a 7.6 percent improvement in shooting accuracy, secure 6.9 additional rebounds, and register 1.6 more blocked shots at home compared to away games. The most pronounced change comes from bench production, averaging 43.9 points at Durham versus a mere 25.6 elsewhere. To advance further, Duke may need to clinch wins in upcoming challenging road matches against Georgia Tech, NC State, and Notre Dame. Achieving success in at least one of these environments will enhance their confidence heading into March Madness.

Two Teams Facing Challenges

Ohio State’s Depth Concerns Exposed

This past week, Ohio State experienced its first defeat of the season, losing 62-59 to Penn State after Chance Gray’s last-minute three-pointer failed to connect. Penn State, previously winless in the Big Ten, exposed the Buckeyes’ vulnerabilities, showcasing a lack of depth that could threaten their presumed championship ambitions.

The Buckeyes’ schedule has not presented them with much high-level competition, shedding light on their ranking as one of the lowest-rated unbeaten teams. They remain ahead of one-loss contenders like Kentucky and TCU, credited to the absence of star freshman Jaloni Cambridge in the recent loss, who sat out due to illness.

This outcome underscored Ohio State’s dependence on Cambridge’s offensive flair and her ability to draw fouls—critical elements missing in the loss, as evidenced by the limited trips to the free-throw line. The team, built on fast-paced play, requires productivity from the bench, especially when using a pressing strategy—a system that demands considerable effort. Without Cambridge, their depth was starkly apparent as the remaining bench players contributed minimally, raising questions about the team’s sustainability.

Utah’s Rankings Decline

After suffering consecutive defeats to Baylor and TCU, the Utes have dropped entirely from rankings. Baylor seized the opportunity to fill the spot previously held by Utah in the “almost famous” category. A lack of rhythm in Utah’s game is evident; their shooting percentages for both two-pointers and three-pointers have diminished significantly over recent games.

The competition has posed considerable challenges for Utah, especially against the top-tier teams from the Big 12 during this stretch. However, their schedule will shift, allowing for a glimmer of hope. In the coming weeks, they could find themselves on a winning streak before facing Oklahoma State on February 18. Consistency remains a concern, and their offensive performance must improve to return to form.

Upcoming Games to Watch

(All times Eastern)

Texas vs. Maryland, 5:30 p.m. Monday, FOX

LSU at South Carolina, 8 p.m. Thursday, ESPN

Baylor at TCU, 3 p.m. Sunday, ESPN2

(Photo of Jadyn Donovan: Sean Rayford / Getty Images)