In the realm of women’s tennis, Aryna Sabalenka is poised to carve out a legacy akin to that of Rafael Nadal on clay or Iga Swiatek on hard courts. As she prepares to launch her title defense at the Australian Open this Sunday, excitement surrounds the prospect of her achieving an unprecedented third consecutive title in Melbourne— a feat last accomplished by Martina Hingis from 1997 to 1999. Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, has been undefeated at this tournament since her fourth-round exit in 2022 against Kaia Kanepi, and she now faces a challenging path as she must navigate past formidable contenders including Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Elena Rybakina.
FIRST QUARTER
As the top seed, Sabalenka faces a formidable draw. She opens her campaign against former US Open champion Sloane Stephens, followed by a potential clash with 29th seed Linda Noskova, who previously shocked Swiatek in the opening week of last year’s tournament. If she advances, she may encounter 14th seed Mirra Andreeva, who bested Sabalenka at the French Open last year. Additionally, a projected quarterfinal matchup against fifth seed Zheng Qinwen promises to be another exciting rematch from the 2024 final.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Sabalenka triumphs over Zheng
SECOND QUARTER
Coco Gauff aims to recover from a surprising fourth-round exit at the US Open courtesy of fellow American Emma Navarro. Despite this setback, Gauff rapidly regained her form, clinching a WTA 1000 title in Beijing and performing admirably at the WTA Finals, defeating both Sabalenka and Swiatek in straight sets. Now, Gauff finds herself in the same half as Sabalenka, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster semifinal. However, her route is lined with challengers, beginning with former Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin, who eliminated her at Wimbledon last year. Gauff may also face seeds like 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko or 20th seed Karolina Muchova before a projected quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula, fresh off an Adelaide final appearance.
The three-time Melbourne quarterfinalist may face difficult opposition from 25th seed Liudmila Samsonova in the third round and a possible encounter with either 11th seed Paula Badosa or 17th seed Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Gauff emerges victorious against Pegula
THIRD QUARTER
In a section led by Italy’s Jasmine Paolini as the highest seed, this quarter also includes former finalist Elena Rybakina. Paolini, who reached consecutive Grand Slam finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon last year, holds a slight edge over Rybakina with a 3-2 head-to-head record, claiming victories in their last two encounters. Nonetheless, Rybakina’s impressive form from the United Cup may prove advantageous as she navigates through her relatively favorable draw. Meanwhile, Paolini may need to overcome 28th seed Elina Svitolina in the third round and 15th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in the fourth round.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Rybakina defeats Paolini
FOURTH QUARTER
Iga Swiatek has had mixed results in Melbourne with only one semifinal appearance but aims to leverage the 2025 Australian Open for a deeper run. She will likely encounter challenges from 26th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round and 13th seed Anna Kalinskaya in the fourth round. If successful, Swiatek could confront Navarro, who made an impressive run last summer at the US Open, in the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Swiatek defeats Navarro
Semifinal Predictions: Gauff defeats Sabalenka; Rybakina defeats Swiatek
Final Prediction: Gauff emerges champion against Rybakina.
